Security Environment – Risks & Assumptions

Security Environment

The security environment remains complex and challenging with the anticipation that current trends and an overall decline of the situation will continue and intensify in coming months. Reports of incidents continue to surge with local medias reporting a significant increase in conflict/crime related incidents across the country over the past months.

Without a strong government,  the already weak and ineffectual reach of the state, control of the police is likely to rapidly fail and new security dynamics will be presented across the country.

Risks and Assumptions

Sources of insecurity and instability in Haiti have traditionally been due to failings in governance and development progress, rather than due to outright armed conflict. It is likely that these factors will continue to shape the security environment, with more acute pressure on the government, civil service, security services and the population in general.

The primary manifestations of unrest and instability in Haiti – insofar as they might affect the population are likely to be crime including kidnapping, carjacking, robbery and civil unrest (demonstrations).

While many demonstrations are peaceful, instances of violence are recorded and the presence of military and police escorts (MINUSTAH, HNP) has a potentially ambiguous effect on the mood of crowds – in many instances succeeding in controlling outbursts while in other instances having the potential to provoke violent discontent or indignation

According to some commentators, the population of Haiti typically does not react kindly to the slowing or cessation of the democratic process, so calling elections soon would be likely to have a destabilizing effect.

Elections are scheduled to take place in August of this year in Haiti. President Martelly has recently called for assistance from the international community in arranging elections as soon as possible.

While it is also possible that  there will be some improvement in the situation, the feeling is that there will first be some deterioration during the electoral process. This could take any of the following forms, or a combination of factors:

  • More deficits in public services – power, water supply, leading to discontent and public unrest
  • Civil disturbances- the forthcoming elections planned for this summer may lead to civil unrest, particularly in major urban centers.
  • Criminal assaults on nationals and internationals – widespread possession of weapons coupled with deteriorating economic situation.
  • In-country power struggles between the different parties for supremacy and control of government.

Any of the above scenarios, may lead eventually to businesses suspending activities. Prolonged suspension of work due to prolonged strikes and demonstrations, may cause most or all international businesses and NGOs to partially  cease  activities in Haiti, and to withdraw expatriate staff to another location.

The volume of criminal activity is likely to surpass pre-Earthquake levels in the long-term.

Frame2

Wave of aggression, crimes and violence

Port au Prince – At least 164 people were killed in violence between January and February in
Haiti: this was stated by the National Commission Jistis ak Lape (JILAP, in Creole, Justice and Peace in Italian)
and was published by the press yesterday in Port au Prince, at a time when the country is experiencing an
escalation of violence that has forced the police to implement a new plan for public safety.
According to the note sent to Fides, the Commission found that 138 of the 164 people killed died as a result of
gunshot wounds, and reported that last month 70 people were killed in the capital and in other parts of the
country, with an average of three cases per day.
An unprecedented wave of assaults and crimes was recorded earlier this month where more than a dozen people
were killed, especially in the capital, and many organizations and also the Catholic Church have appealed to
authorities to take necessary measures.
According to other reports sent to Fides, there have been episodes such as vandalism and violence against
religious institutions (see Fides 12 and 14/03/2015) and also in schools, where groups of high school students
attack teachers and other adults in the school or in the vicinity. The population now avoids going to some places
which are considered at risk, such as banks and the center of the capital.
According to the report of JILAP, 1,136 people were victims of violence during the year 2014, of these, 942 were
cases of murder with firearms. Between October and December 2014, the organization documented 284 cases of
violence, of which 252 were homicides caused by bullets.
The data released by JILAP differ from those of the group that brings together Haitian organizations for the
defense of Human Rights (POHDH), according to which there were a total of 1,004 violent deaths in Haiti last
year: 715 people killed with firearms, 254 due to road accidents and 35 were stabbed. (CE) (Agenzia Fides
20/03/2015

Security Environment – March 14, 2015

 

During this period, the overall security situation in Haiti is relatively stable and manageable but has the potential to deteriorate at any given time due to:

  • The public response to socio economic conditions
  • Increase of criminal activity
  • Stalemate over the  elections agenda between the Electoral Council (CEP) and the political parties

In Haiti, everyone is at risk for criminal victimization. Crime has traditionally been highest in urban areas and especially in the inner-city slums of Port-au-Prince metropolitan area. There have been reports of several religious congregations being victims of both burglary and theft throughout the country.  Crimes perpetrated by minors have also been on the rise  over the past months.

We acknowledged the sustained efforts of the HNP to enhance the security climate by increasing patrols and its presence on the streets which resulted in a considerable decrease in the overall number of crimes.

However, we recommend:

  • That everyone keeps a vigilant posture considering that criminal gangs remain a threat to Haiti’s stability
  • To avoid venturing out in areas where movements presents several safety and security risks.Frame2

 

Shootings between rival gangs in Cite Soleil

According to local media reports, brief clashes between rival criminal gangs in Cite Soleil during a concert for peace held in the public square in “Premiere Cite” where several thousands of participants have taken part. Clashes occurred between criminal groups led on one side by well-known gang leaders  “Gabriel” and on the other side by “Ti Hougan and Te Quiero”.

Both sides sustained casualties with varying accounts  on who initiated the clash and the numbers of casualties. This past period was dominated by persistent crime in Cite Soleil and gang conflicts and the population continues to face security challenges.

There are reports that tension is mounting in this area where citizens have called on HNP forces to remain alert.

There is also a potential for continued insecurity within Cite Soleil area due to persistent street crime, killing of gang members and unrest.

Due to the ongoing serious indirect threats generated by the high level of conflict related violence in this area, movements by road presents several safety and security risks to the population.

Factional fighting has been endemic in Haiti’s history leading to a complex acts of political and criminal interests.

Frame1

Haiti Security Situation -March 9

The security situation throughout Haiti remain complex and had the potential to deteriorate at any given time due to:

  • 48  hours (March 9-10) strike called by the opposition platform ” Table de concertation de l’opposition democratique”
  • 2 days demonstrations (March 13, 15) called by some opposition organizations to demand the diminution of the high  fuel prices and the departure of President Martelly. The also want to protest again the costs of living.

There is also clear indication of:

  • ongoing complaints from business owners of extortion and harassment by criminal elements operating in areas of critical lawlessness, rife with criminality and violence.

While the number of incidents rise, targets sets and tactics remain to this point fairly consistent, murders, shootings, kidnaps and intimidation.

Target profiles have also remain constant with former GOH officials remaining prime. Direct incident involving HNP officers also increased for the past two (2) months, which on balance is in line with the increased total numbers of incidents. This has the potential to spread to international and humanitarian actors.

Tensions are also exacerbated as the number of high profile politicians and journalists have been included in a hit list.

There is a clear link between political related violence and criminal activities.

Frame1

48 hours strike called by political organizations for March 9-10

 

The political platform ” Table de concertation de l’opposition demoncratique”  and other civil organizations have called for a 48 hours strike starting March 9 to March 10. For the past 2 days, there has been violent tracks on the streets of Port-au-Prince warning the citizens to stay home in order to avoid violence and clashes.

In response to this situation, Police Chief Godson Aurelus made it clear to the population that  the HNP is preparing to secure the streets of Haiti’s capital.

Frame1

Murder and crimes against personal integrity (03/03/2015)

On March 4, 2015, at 13:00 hours in Tabarre 9, Port-au-Prince (West Department), two (2) unidentified suspects riding in motorcycle, fired gunshots at former Deputy Hidson Nelson (North Department). The victim sustained gunshots to the arm and was transported to the hospital.

Mackendy, a young student aged 8 years old was shot dead during the shootings. Following the incident, HNP officers were present at the scene for investigation purposes.