The security environment remains complex and challenging with the anticipation that current trends and an overall decline of the situation will continue and intensify in coming months. Reports of incidents continue to surge with local medias reporting a significant increase in conflict/crime related incidents across the country over the past months.

Without a strong government,  the already weak and ineffectual reach of the state, control of the police is likely to rapidly fail and new security dynamics will be presented across the country.

Risks and Assumptions

Sources of insecurity and instability in Haiti have traditionally been due to failings in governance and development progress, rather than due to outright armed conflict. It is likely that these factors will continue to shape the security environment, with more acute pressure on the government, civil service, security services and the population in general.

The primary manifestations of unrest and instability in Haiti – insofar as they might affect the population are likely to be crime including kidnapping, carjacking, robbery and civil unrest (demonstrations).

While many demonstrations are peaceful, instances of violence are recorded and the presence of military and police escorts (MINUSTAH, HNP) has a potentially ambiguous effect on the mood of crowds – in many instances succeeding in controlling outbursts while in other instances having the potential to provoke violent discontent or indignation

According to some commentators, the population of Haiti typically does not react kindly to the slowing or cessation of the democratic process, so calling elections soon would be likely to have a destabilizing effect.

Elections are scheduled to take place in August of this year in Haiti. President Martelly has recently called for assistance from the international community in arranging elections as soon as possible.

While it is also possible that  there will be some improvement in the situation, the feeling is that there will first be some deterioration during the electoral process. This could take any of the following forms, or a combination of factors:

• More deficits in public services – power, water supply, leading to discontent and public unrest
• Civil disturbances- the forthcoming elections planned for this summer may lead to civil unrest, particularly in major urban centers.
• Criminal assaults on nationals and internationals – widespread possession of weapons coupled with deteriorating economic situation.
• In-country power struggles between the different parties for supremacy and control of government.

Any of the above scenarios, may lead eventually to businesses suspending activities. Prolonged suspension of work due to prolonged strikes and demonstrations, may cause most or all international businesses and NGOs to partially  cease  activities in Haiti, and to withdraw expatriate staff to another location.

The volume of criminal activity is likely to surpass pre-Earthquake levels in the long-term.