Haiti Security Update – Month of August 2015

Overall situation            

The security environment remains complex and challenging with the anticipation that current trends and an overall decline of the situation will continue and intensify in coming weeks. Reports of incidents continue to surge with the medias reporting ‘an extraordinary’ increase in conflict related incidents across the country over the past week. Despite significant ‘boots on the ground’ and proclaimed successes through various offensives by HNP and MINUSTAH Opposition Groups and Political Parties clearly retain the capacity to plan and execute audacious and coordinated demonstrations anywhere in the country.

While the number of incidents rises, target sets and tactics remain, to this point, fairly consistent combined small arm attacks against business, indirect fire, murder, kidnap and intimidation. There is a clear link between conflict related violence and criminal activities.

Target profiles have also remained constant, with Haiti Nationals and HNP members remaining prime.

Political troubles are growing and global participation to the elections was less than announced in some areas where several criminal incidents were reported mainly in the North, Centre, West and Southern department.

It is expected that the levels of violence actually reported may increase after the 19^th of August for the final results of the first round of the legislative elections. The underline date is to be followed as it could have great impact on security situation.

General trends

• Increased reporting on break-in and home invasion attempts in PaP. In the past week several break-in attempts were reported to VC. Most of the incidents occurred in the lower Delmas area, Freres and on the higher slopes south of Petion-Ville.

• Armed robberies targeting people coming from the bank cash continue to be reported in almost every place of Port-au-Prince.

• Possible extension of insecurity in the Center, West and Southern regions: Situation in these regions could deteriorate due to the confirmed presence in that area of criminal rings. A similar trend could develop in Cap Haitian and several security incidents were reported in that town in the past weeks.

• Carjacking may be on the rise, particularly in Port-au-Prince and on the main roads leading to Port-au-Prince to the east and north.

• Increased tension has been reported in Downtown PaP in the last weeks, particularly around Boulevard la Saline and the lower part of Delmas road. The tension translates into frequent shootings, usually in the morning, and the assassination of PNH elements. It seems there is an open war between local gangs, possibly from Cite Soleil and Simon-Pele.

• It seems that gang activities are increasing in these areas where individuals were killed during the past weeks.

Forecast for next week

• The murder threat could rise from moderate to high. Assassination attempts targeting presidential candidates could also occur.

• Despite increased security measures, an upsurge of violence is anticipated throughout Haiti ahead of the publication of the legislative polls results by the CEP (19 Aug).

• Politically motivated protests may occur after the vote. Allegations of fraud are likely, and losing candidates may organize disruptive rallies, especially if the incumbent wins a disproportionate percentage of the vote in challengers’ strongholds.