Security Advisory

Haiti Elections (Oct. 25, 2015) – Analysis

23 October , 2015

HAITI – PRESIDENTIAL and LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

  1. Despite increased security measures by HNP and MINUSTAH an upsurge of violence could be anticipated throughout Haiti ahead of the presidential and provincial council elections (25 Oct). It is equally possible that the situation will significantly deteriorate in one part of the country, while remaining relatively stable in another.
  1. While increased political violence are likely in the Plateau and Northern provinces, policitcal activists and militants may also strike in Port-au-Prince and the southern provinces. In recent weeks, criminals have launched attacks against HNP officers in Port-au-Prince.
  1. (Worst case scenario) The threat for rioting and shooting is moderate to high. Besides attacks on GOH and MINUSTAH, political activists may target major hotels and other high profile gathering places for the international community as well as provincial administrative buildings, polling stations. Assassination attempts targeting presidential and legislative candidates could also occur.
  1. Due to the possibility of instability over the election period, People should therefore be prepared for this eventuality by stockpiling enough food and water to for a period of 3-4 days.
  1. Politically motivated protests may occur after the vote. Allegations of fraud are likely, and losing candidates may organize disruptive rallies, especially if the incumbent wins a disproportionate percentage of the vote in challengers’ strongholds.