Security Advisory
Information
While elections-related security incidents were less severe than anticipated and civil unrest has failed to materialize, the possibility remains for unexpected incidents to occur.
Politically motivated protests may occur without notice. Opposition groups attempts to disrupt or destabilize the post-election period are also possible. These include political violence, rioting and shooting. Although these potential incidents are unlikely to directly target civilians, there remains a possibility that they may be targeted.
While 27 October has been mentioned as a date for an official statement regarding the preliminary results, these are likely to occur over the course of the next week, leading up to the 5 November formal announcement. Additionally, candidates are expected to continue making allegations of electoral fraud and irregularities. This may contribute to impromptu or organized protests.
Advisory
- Avoid all political rallies, campaign offices, OEA and EU facilities, UN installations and convoys, and organizations associated with the elections
- Avoid high profile restaurants, hotels and other facilities popular with the international community
- Limit movement to essential travel only
- Keep mobile phones with you at all times
- Avoid all crowds
- Maintain active situational awareness
- Remember that the possibility of a wrong time/place incident increases in direct proportion to your level of exposure
SIGNIFICANT INCIDENTS
- North. By far the most dramatic incident was in Cap-Haitian, where “thousands of protestors” battled with HNP. Police fired warning shots, charged with batons and used tear gas to disperse the crowds. Gunfire was heard as police tried to clear people from a main street, although it is not known whether this was the result of police firing warning shots to disperse protestors.
- West. Rally was held in front of the CEP Offices in Petion-Ville this week. HNP and UN troops were deployed throughout the city and troops were seen occupying key positions on GOH buildings.
UPCOMING GENERAL STRIKE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYNDICATE
Date. 9-10 November 2015
No public transportation expected. Few private vehicles expected on the streets.
ANALYSIS
Reaction:
School– Schools in the majority of locations throughout Haiti are expected to remain shut down for 1-2 days after the proclaimed results by the CEP.
NGOs – There is a great deal of concern amongst many NGO actors.
GOH – HNP forces were deployed in all Departments and the government announced that schools and colleges would be closed in the region for one week.
Based on the facts available, my assessment is that the situation will remain volatile, with localized incidents of violent protest, for the next 48 hours.
Forecast Next 48 Hours:
Best Case. Politically motivated protests may occur after the results. Allegations of fraud are likely, and losing candidates may organize disruptive rallies, especially if the incumbent wins a disproportionate percentage of the vote in challengers’ strongholds.
Likeliest Case. Despite increased security measures, an upsurge of violence is anticipated throughout Haiti ahead of the publication of the legislative polls results by the CEP (5 November).
Protests and public outcry continue throughout the country with isolated incidents of violence.
Worst Case. Rallies and demonstrations continue to grow larger and more violent. Protestors begin to target the CEP and all Western-affiliated agencies.
CONCLUSION
The security situation remains hard to predict. Based on the information available, the situation may well continue to deteriorate. All things being equal, the situation might also stabilize within the next 96 hours. I continue to operate on the principle that one should hope for the best and prepare for the worst. Further updates will be transmitted as the situation dictates.