Security Advisory

Information

While elections-related security incidents were less severe than anticipated and civil unrest has failed to materialize, the possibility remains for unexpected incidents to occur.

Politically motivated protests may occur without notice. Opposition groups attempts to disrupt or destabilize the post-election period are also possible. These include political violence, rioting and shooting. Although these potential incidents are unlikely to directly target civilians, there remains a possibility that they may be targeted.

While 27 October has been mentioned as a date for an official statement regarding the preliminary results, these are likely to occur over the course of the next week, leading up to the 5 November formal announcement. Additionally, candidates are expected to continue making allegations of electoral fraud and irregularities. This may contribute to impromptu or organized protests.

Advisory

• Avoid all political rallies, campaign offices, OEA and EU facilities, UN installations and convoys, and organizations associated with the elections
• Avoid high profile restaurants, hotels and other facilities popular with the international community
• Limit movement to essential travel only
• Keep mobile phones with you at all times
• Avoid all crowds
• Maintain active situational awareness
• Remember that the possibility of a wrong time/place incident increases in direct proportion to your level of exposure

SIGNIFICANT INCIDENTS

2. North.  By far the most dramatic incident was in Cap-Haitian, where “thousands of protestors” battled with HNP.  Police fired warning shots, charged with batons and used tear gas to disperse the crowds. Gunfire was heard as police tried to clear people from a main street, although it is not known whether this was the result of police firing warning shots to disperse protestors.

3. West.  Rally was held in front of the CEP Offices in Petion-Ville this week. HNP and UN troops were deployed throughout the city and troops were seen occupying key positions on GOH buildings.

UPCOMING GENERAL STRIKE OF PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION SYNDICATE

Date. 9-10 November 2015

No public transportation expected. Few private vehicles expected on the streets.

ANALYSIS

Reaction:

School– Schools in the majority of locations throughout Haiti are expected to remain shut down for 1-2 days after the proclaimed results by the CEP.

NGOs – There is a great deal of concern amongst many NGO actors.

GOH – HNP forces were deployed in all Departments and the government announced that schools and colleges would be closed in the region for one week.

Based on the facts available, my assessment is that the situation will remain volatile, with localized incidents of violent protest, for the next 48 hours.

Forecast Next 48 Hours:

Best Case.   Politically motivated protests may occur after the results. Allegations of fraud are likely, and losing candidates may organize disruptive rallies, especially if the incumbent wins a disproportionate percentage of the vote in challengers’ strongholds.

Likeliest Case.  Despite increased security measures, an upsurge of violence is anticipated throughout Haiti ahead of the publication of the legislative polls results by the CEP (5 November).

Protests and public outcry continue throughout the country with isolated incidents of violence.

Worst Case.  Rallies and demonstrations continue to grow larger and more violent.  Protestors begin to target the CEP and all Western-affiliated agencies.

CONCLUSION

The security situation remains hard to predict.  Based on the information available, the situation may well continue to deteriorate.  All things being equal, the situation might also stabilize within the next 96 hours.  I continue to operate on the principle that one should hope for the best and prepare for the worst.  Further updates will be transmitted as the situation dictates.

23 October , 2015

HAITI – PRESIDENTIAL and LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS

SITUATIONAL ANALYSIS

1. Despite increased security measures by HNP and MINUSTAH an upsurge of violence could be anticipated throughout Haiti ahead of the presidential and provincial council elections (25 Oct). It is equally possible that the situation will significantly deteriorate in one part of the country, while remaining relatively stable in another.

2. While increased political violence are likely in the Plateau and Northern provinces, policitcal activists and militants may also strike in Port-au-Prince and the southern provinces. In recent weeks, criminals have launched attacks against HNP officers in Port-au-Prince.

3. (Worst case scenario) The threat for rioting and shooting is moderate to high. Besides attacks on GOH and MINUSTAH, political activists may target major hotels and other high profile gathering places for the international community as well as provincial administrative buildings, polling stations. Assassination attempts targeting presidential and legislative candidates could also occur.

4. Due to the possibility of instability over the election period, People should therefore be prepared for this eventuality by stockpiling enough food and water to for a period of 3-4 days.

5. Politically motivated protests may occur after the vote. Allegations of fraud are likely, and losing candidates may organize disruptive rallies, especially if the incumbent wins a disproportionate percentage of the vote in challengers’ strongholds.

State University Student Association and the Opposition parties are planning a peaceful public protest and will stage a  demonstration in downtown area of Port-au-Prince on March 5, 2015. The demonstrators will claim their grievances against the HNP and the GOH and will demand justice  and freedom for  Chedler Guilloux a fellow student arrested on Feb. 23. 2015.

Gathering point will be in front of Perpetuel in Bel-Air. The planned itinary is as follow:

• Bel-Air,
• Champ-de-Mars

The organizers are expecting thousands of participants, This protest would however remain localized, small to medium scale and keep under control of the HNP forces.

We can anticipate that this demonstration could turn violent due to potential conflict that may arise between opposing groups of supporters and also disorders resulting from civil disruption

Precautionary movement restrictions:

• Avoid areas where demonstrations will take place;
• Curtail all unnecessary travels in the downtown area of Port-au-Prince;
• Avoid crowds and congested areas.
• Be constantly alert to your surroundings
• Stay out of know dangerous areas of Port-au-Prince.

The above are some security basics that hopefully can assist you. With a bit of preparation and a whole of common sense, you can greatly reduce any potential for problems. Being prudent is being intelligent.

Historically, and for those who celebrate this event in the traditional manner, carnival marks the beginning of one of the holiest times of the Haitian year, the event marks a time of prayer, reflection, forgiveness and rebirth.

The Carnival, which starts on the 15th of February, will mark the (official) beginning of 3 days of festivities. During that period the country stops and indulges in a riot of dancing, drinking and parades.

Unfortunately, the event has also become synonymous with excesses of alcohol and illegal substance consumption, often leading to disturbances and acts of violence. HNP officers will be out in full force to ensure security and safety.

Participants should be particularly vigilant before and during the festive and Carnival periods, as there is often a seasonal upsurge in crimes of opportunity (petty theft) around this time. Thefts from cars are common, and cases of car jacking occur. Everyone is a potential victim. Violence and crime can occur anywhere and often involve firearms or other weapons.

Precautionary measures:

• Take particular care when walking and exercise caution and good judgment.
• Avoid venturing out after dark in quiet streets.
• Dress down; avoid wearing jewelry and expensive watches.
• Avoid displaying large amount of money.
• Conceal mobile phones and cameras.
• Do not engage with strangers.

You should be ready to hand over your valuables if threatened; do not attempt to resist attackers as they will often use their weapons, particularly if under the influence of drugs.